Flu: A Damper on Cruising?

With the travel industry still working to offset the nation's recession, the last thing needed is a flu epidemic that depresses travel demand any further. How many consumers will retrench from any future travel is, as yet, unknown? Much depends on whether the flu scenario unfolds in a bigger way or, as we truly hope, fizzles. As a consumer as well as a reporter, I acknowledge I'm a bit concerned. I'm not paranoid, for sure, but yesterday I informed Celebrity Cruises that an upcoming trip I'm planning to take in late June for a look at the Celebrity Equinox in Germany will depend on how intensive any flu exposure might be at the time of the trip. Being on a transAtlantic flight with hundreds of other folks for six hours during a flu epidemic isn't prudent by any standard. I also have an elderly parent at home, so that's another consideration. For now, however, I'm still eager to go. But I told them I'd evaluate further as the departure date nears. I suspect many other consumers who have planned summer vacations will do the same. While no one should panic, a hefty dose of caution likely will reign if things deteriorate. Cruise lines are clearly evaluating what to do at this moment. Today, Robin Farley, a UBS Warburg financial analyst (one of the best out there with "right on" assessments in my opinion) has put together some interesting numbers. She estimates that in "quantifying" voyages of Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. brands -- those with Mexico itineraries -- the total is 17 percent or so of total deployments. However, she trims that to 5-6 percent of deployments when considering that for many Caribbean voyages with Mexican port calls, the lines simply could substitute other Caribbean destinations. Overall, for every 20 percent reduction in yields for those Mexican itineraries, each major cruise company could potentially face a 1 percent drop in overall companywide yields, according to Farley's assessment. Of course, nothing is certain right now. And that's a fact. Other factors could raise or lower the yields even further. One big issue is containment. What happens when, and if, the flu navigates to those secondary Caribbean markets and also any major U.S. port destinations from which the cruises depart? That's a bigger issue... But for now, consumers - myself included - have a right to be concerned. Still, we have an obligation to putting this situation in perspective. Reasonable attitudes, when so few people are impacted as yet, must prevail. Our economy is deeply impacted when people stop traveling. So, for now, I'm following the situation closely. And, I'm still planning for my trip - and hope that unless a bigger flu threat develops, others will do the same.